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When official interest rates rise, so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds, known as yields. In the United Kingdom, the yield on 30-year bonds also reached 5% this week, the highest level in more than two decades. Yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds hit 5% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2012, when that crisis was in full swing. Mortgage rates riseThe yields on local government bonds are usually used by banks to price mortgages. High official interest rates in America and Europe have also raised the cost of borrowing for businesses.
Persons: Saul Loeb, Liz Truss, , Matt Cardy, Freddie Mac, Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley, Stocks, ” Russ Mould, AJ Bell, we’ve, , , That’s, ” Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown Organizations: London CNN, US Treasury Department, Getty, UK, CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Hargreaves Locations: Washington ,, United Kingdom, Bath, England, United States, Europe, America
A decline in corporate earnings will stop the stock-market rally in its tracks, Morgan Stanley said. Earnings per share for the S&P 500 will fall by 16%, the team of strategists said, per Bloomberg. US earnings now face downside risk, Sheet's team said, noting that the firm expects S&P 500 earnings per share to be $185, which is less than Wall Street's average prediction of $206. Morgan Stanley anticipates the key index to fall to 3,900 by the end of the year, per Bloomberg. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 12% so far this year to 4,282 as of Friday's close on the back of an artificial intelligence-fueled rally.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, & $
So far in 2023, this index of what are the leading lights of the U.S. economy is up 36% - six times the year-to-date gains of the S&P 500 index (.SPX). Put another way, this year's rise of these 10 mega tech stocks accounts for pretty much all of the S&P 500 gains. "But given how often the S&P 500 has been used as Exhibit A for overall 'resilience', it's important to acknowledge just how idiosyncratic this macro gauge has been." Are tech stocks overpriced? There are certainly plenty of concerns that these mega stocks may be overbought and just too expensive - even though that concern will hardly be a new worry for these stocks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSlowing growth is still a significant downside risk to stocks, Morgan Stanley saysAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley, discusses recent economic data out of the U.K., Europe and the U.S., and the potential risks to stock markets.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley strategist sees EM equities gaining 10% over next year, with China in line or betterThe macroeconomic environment in 2023 will be more friendly to emerging market assets, according to Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets, benefiting China along with South Korea, Taiwan and Mexico.
The Fed could stop hiking rates as soon as January of next year, according to Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets. Sheets pointed to evidence of falling inflation, though he noted central bankers would likely keep monitoring the economy after pausing rate hikes. But while investors are hoping a pause could spark a new rally, stocks will still be under pressure next year on poor earnings, he warned. But central bankers risk undoing the tightening they've done so far by pausing rate hikes, Sheets pointed out. Stocks are still likely to face downward pressure with dismal earnings into 2023, Sheets said.
The good news for new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is that few analysts now expect the pound to fall below parity with the dollar. A warm October has helped natural gas prices fall but a cold winter could drive up the cost of Britain's energy imports again, said Jordan Rochester, currency strategist at Nomura. DOLLAR PRESSURENot all strategists think the pound will return to near the lows seen in September. "The global economy is slowing down and heading for a recession and in such a scenario, the U.S. dollar does tend to outperform," said Alvin Tan, a senior currency strategist at RBC. Further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, including on Wednesday, are also likely to support the dollar, he said.
The pound touched its highest level since Sept. 13, continuing its rally after Rishi Sunak became Britain's prime minister. U.S. new home sales decreased 10.9% and mortgage rates reached their highest level in 20 years last week, data showed. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rallied more than 1%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) hit its highest level since Sept. 20. Market participants became cautious after major state-owned banks were spotted selling the dollar on Tuesday to stabilize the market, traders said. U.S. Treasury yields fell, helped by a weaker dollar and Fed hopes.
The U.S. dollar index fell to a five-week low as the pound touched its highest since Sept. 13, continuing its rally after Rishi Sunak became Britain's prime minister. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.51%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.97% at 10:37 a.m. EDT (1437 GMT)MSCI's World Stock Index (.MIWO00000PUS) was up 0.36% and touched a five-week high. Europe's Stoxx 600 (.STOXX) also touched a five-week high in choppy trade. Market participants became cautious after major state-owned banks were spotted selling the dollar on Tuesday to stabilize the market, traders said. Elsewhere in commodities, oil prices rose on the weaker dollar and supply concerns.
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